If the Russians pull back and borders are restored, the crisis is over. What happens next is too hard to predict in political terms. The West responds by reiterating its demands that the Russians leave NATO territory, by initiating a renewed offensive against the invading forces, and by increasing U.S., British, and French nuclear readiness. The Kremlin, at this point, threatens to use nuclear weapons. The idea of NATO stepping even an inch into Russia fills the generals and their president with dread, especially as the Russian public watches their soldiers being cut to pieces in a foreign country. Worse, they may fear a counter-offensive that could spill into Russian territory. The Russians soon realize they face the prospect of a humiliating defeat. Russian losses, viewed instantly and globally across the internet, are heavy. ( Recommended: 5 Russian Weapons of War America Should Fear) Now it’s a real war, and after they clear the skies of inferior Russian aircraft, Western jets soon begin pounding Russian soldiers and obliterating Russian equipment in numbers that defy even the most pessimistic assumptions of the Russian General Staff. NATO leaders, contrary to these unrealistic Russian expectations, activate Article V of the NATO charter. Clinging to the assumption that NATO will fracture and abandon the victim to Russian aggression, the men in Moscow send in Russian regulars to help their “brothers” in the struggle. The Kremlin, now watching its plans unspool, doubles down. This time, however, the target responds forcefully: instead of the hapless and disorganized Ukrainians of 2014, the Russians find themselves facing troops with better training and superior Western weapons, who briskly dispatch the Russian “volunteers” and showcase an array of captured Russian arms. “Little green men” begin assisting “separatists” in isolating a slice of NATO territory. To this end, the Kremlin attempts to replicate the 2014 Ukraine operation, only this time in a NATO nation, perhaps in the Baltics or Poland. That does not mean, however, that Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, accept the outcome of the Cold War.Īnd so imagine, in the wake of Russia’s successes in Ukraine, that the Russian leadership under Vladimir Putin decides to test its belief that NATO, as a political alliance, can be broken with a show of force. How might this doctrine come into play during a crisis? There is far less at stake between Russia and the West now, and the Russians are not commanding a global empire dedicated to a revolutionary ideology.
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